Venezuela se sigue hundiendo: FMI proyecta contracción económica de un 35%
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El Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) recortó sus previsiones económicas para América Latina, debido a la desaceleración de Brasil y México, la crisis en Argentina y el colapso de la economía de Venezuela. La organización proyectó un crecimiento de un 0,2% para la región este año, lo que significa un recorte de 0,4 puntos porcentuales desde sus últimas revisiones de julio.
«En América Latina la actividad se desaceleró notablemente a principios de año en las economías más grandes, reflejando principalmente factores idiosincráticos. Ahora se espera un crecimiento en la región del 0,2 por ciento este año”, dice el texto. Las proyecciones para la región la sitúan por debajo del promedio de la economía mundial, que según el organismo crecerá un 3 por ciento en 2019 y un 3,4 por ciento en 2020.
«La considerable revisión a la baja para 2019 refleja un recorte para Brasil, donde el suministro minero lastró la actividad, y para México, donde la inversión sigue siendo débil y el consumo privado se ha desacelerado», dijo FMI en su informe.
En el último informe WEO se proyecta una desaceleración del crecimiento mundial en 2019 y una leve mejora en 2020. Consulte las proyecciones por región en #WEO. https://t.co/oGFgFuzuaP #IMFBlog pic.twitter.com/VdYlqHNV7c
— FMI (@FMInoticias) October 15, 2019
El FMI proyecta que el crecimiento en América Latina aumente desde 1,8% proyectado para 2020, pero que siga en un nivel por debajo de la barrera del 3% en el medio plazo por «rigideces estructurales, las hábiles condiciones del comercio y los desequilibrios fiscales».
Las proyecciones del FMI para Venezuela arrojaron que esta nación siga sumergida en una profunda crisis, con una contracción de un 35% para este año y de un 10% para 2020. Asimismo pronosticó un alza en los precios de un 200,000% en 2019 y de 500,000% para el próximo año, tras haber proyectado inicialmente una inflación de 1,000,000% para 2019. «En Venezuela, se proyecta que continúe el colapso que ya lleva varios años, pero a un ritmo menos dramático que en 2019”, señala el informe. Venezuela estaría entrando en su séptimo año de recesión.
Los países del eje del Pacífico mantendrán un crecimiento por encima del promedio de la región, con una proyección para Chile de una expansión de un 2,5% para 2019 y de 3% para 2020. Según la organización.
NUEVO: Informe #WEO de octubre de 2019. El crecimiento mundial ha sido rebajado una vez más a 3%, y se proyecta que aumente moderadamente a 3,4% en 2020, un recorte de 0,2% con respecto a las proyecciones de abril. https://t.co/9trWEuG1vc pic.twitter.com/v7UF57T4Oi
— FMI (@FMInoticias) October 15, 2019
En el caso de Colombia, proyectó un crecimiento de un 3,4% en 2019 y de un 3,6% para el próximo año. Asimismo para Perú proyectó un crecimiento de un 2,6% este año y de un 3,6 para 2020.
Los debilitamiento continúan para la economía de Argentina, de la cual el FMI proyectó un panorama sombrío, con una ampliación de la crisis después de que el 2018 el PIB argentino se contrajo en 2,5% con un reducción de un 3,1% en 2019 y una recesión que se prolonga hasta 2020 con una retracción de un 1,3%.
En palabras textuales del FMI, éste aseguró que «se espera que la economía en Argentina se contraiga más en 2019 debido a la caída de la confianza y a un condiciones de financiamiento externo más ajustadas».
Se recuerda que el gobierno de Mauricio Macri llegó a un acuerdo con el FMI el pasado año para un crédito a pagar en tres años de unos US$57,000 millones, de los cuales el organismo entregó más de US$44,000 millones.
Gopinath: La intensificación de las tensiones comerciales y geopolíticas, incluidos los riesgos relacionados con el brexit, podrían trastocar aún más la actividad económica y descarrillar una recuperación que ya es frágil. https://t.co/s4o0UT9s6A #WEO pic.twitter.com/3JFxg35HxP
— FMI (@FMInoticias) October 15, 2019
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