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El crecimiento económico mundial se hundirá a niveles no vistos en más de diez años, a medida que el coronavirus asesta un golpe a la oferta y la demanda, retando a los bancos centrales y a los gobiernos a tomar medidas ante una situación que cambia rápidamente, de acuerdo con la OCDE.
A medida que los bancos centrales de todo el mundo intentan calmar el pánico del mercado, el grupo con sede en París también advirtió sobre una posible contracción global este trimestre. La OCDE redujo su crecimiento anual desde un 2,.9 % a solo el 2.4%, lo que sería el ritmo más débil desde 2009.
Si la situación empeora, “se necesitarían medidas políticas coordinadas en las principales economías” para atención médica y estímulo económico, dijo
Los gobiernos y los bancos centrales ya se están preparando para la batalla, después de una caída del mercado de valores mundial la semana pasada. El Banco de Japón y el Banco de Inglaterra prometieron tomar medidas con el objetivo de estabilizar los mercados financieros mientras que la Reserva Federal ha abierto la puerta a un recorte de tasas de interés de Estados Unidos. Los ministros de Finanzas del Grupo de los Siete mantendrán una teleconferencia sobre la crisis esta semana.
Las cosas podrían empeorar mucho, dijo la OCDE en su informe, “Coronavirus: el mundo en riesgo”. La portada del informe incluía una imagen de una zona de recogida de equipajes vacía de un aeropuerto, un reflejo del brote que ha provocado restricciones de viaje generalizadas y el cierre de negocios y escuelas.
El pronóstico se basa en el supuesto de que la epidemia que se originó en China alcanza un pico este trimestre y los brotes en otras áreas “siguen siendo leves y contenidos”. Si dura más y se extiende por Asia, Europa y los Estados Unidos, el impacto económico sería severo. El crecimiento global en ese caso sería solo del 1,5%, con la posibilidad de recesiones en economías como Japón y la zona euro.
“El brote de coronavirus ya ha provocado un considerable sufrimiento humano y un gran trastorno económico”, dijo la OCDE. “Las perspectivas de crecimiento siguen siendo muy inciertas”.
El alcance del golpe hace que sea particularmente difícil para los responsables políticos reaccionar. En muchos países, los bancos centrales tienen un arsenal agotado después de reducir las tasas para registrar mínimos históricos y gastar miles de millones en compras de activos.
La naturaleza del desafío también significa que la política monetaria puede no ser la herramienta más adecuada, ya que se necesitan gastos específicos y política económica, dijo Laurence Boone, economista jefe de la OCDE.
“No es solo un choque de demanda, es un choque de confianza y un choque de interrupción de la cadena de suministro que los bancos centrales podrían no enfrentar solos”, dijo.
Si se materializan los riesgos a la baja, la OCDE dijo que las medidas coordinadas resultarían más efectivas que las adoptadas por cada país por sí solo. Incluso podría ser útil señalar esa posibilidad ahora.
“La confianza está cayendo en todas partes por lo que no es deseable enviar un mensaje de respuesta, sino al menos un mensaje de que está debatiendo y está preparado para tomar medidas y hacerlo conjuntamente”, dijo Boone.
Hay algunas medidas que los gobiernos pueden y deben tomar de inmediato, dijo la OCDE. Estas podrían incluir apoyo fiscal para los servicios de salud, regímenes de trabajo flexibles con garantías de pago, proporcionar liquidez al sector financiero, apoyo específico para las industrias afectadas como el turismo y normas estatales y fiscales más flexibles.
Más allá del coronavirus, otros riesgos significativos continúan afectando las perspectivas económicas mundiales. Entre ellas se incluyen las tensiones comerciales y de inversión que “siguen siendo altas y podrían aumentar aún más”, y la incertidumbre sobre el brexit. La reciente caída en los mercados financieros también aumenta las vulnerabilidades de los altos niveles de deuda y el deterioro de la calidad crediticia, dijo la OCDE.
“Somos muy humildes al hacer este pronóstico”, dijo Boone en una entrevista. “Es una situación muy inusual y está cambiando día a día”.
Por: Bloomberg
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