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La confianza de los consumidores se hunde en 2018 por la caída de las expectativas
La confianza de los consumidores se hunde en 2018. El Índice de Confianza del Consumidor (ICC) ha cerrado 2018 en 90,9 puntos, muy por debajo de los 102,5 puntos con los que concluyó 2017, por el descenso de las expectativas. La media anual, que en 2017 marcó su máximo histórico, se redujo hasta 98,3 puntos, por debajo de la obtenida el año pasado pero por encima de la de 2016.
A lo largo del año, el ICC dibujó una evolución de dientes de sierra, aunque la mayoría de los meses cerraron por debajo de los cien puntos. Sólo en enero, junio, julio y agosto se superó esa barrera, marcando el máximo en junio, tras la moción de censura al Gobierno de Mariano Rajoy.
Las expectativas volvieron a lastrar la evolución total del índice, con un descenso de 13,6 puntos respecto a diciembre de 2017, frente a la caída de 9,4 puntos que registró la valoración de la situación actual.
La media anual del ICC en 2018 se situó en 98,3 puntos, lo que supuso un descenso de 4,5 puntos respecto a los datos de 2015 y 2017. En relación a 2016, la media se incrementó en cinco puntos.
La media anual del índice de expectativas, por su parte, se encuentra 4,8 puntos por debajo de la media de 2017, en 105,2 puntos, mientras que la del índice de situación actual se ha reducido en 4,4 puntos, hasta 91,4 puntos.
La distancia entre las expectativas y la situación actual, que llegó superar los cincuenta puntos en los años duros de la crisis, se encuentra hoy en niveles similares a antes de 2007, alrededor de catorce puntos.
Mejora en los hogares, pero empeora la valoración de la economía
Los componentes del índice han evolucionado de manera muy desigual. Dentro la valoración de la situación actual, el peor resultado lo registró la valoración de la evolución general de la economía, que descendió 19,2 puntos, hasta 76,1 puntos, la cota más baja desde noviembre de 2014. En cambio, la percepción de la situación de los hogares mejoró en 3,2 puntos, pero las opciones que ofrece el mercado de trabajo se valoran en 12,3 puntos por debajo del valor de hace un año.
En el caso del índice de las expectativas, el único aumento lo registró las expectativas de los hogares, que subieron en 4,5 puntos. En cambio, las expectativas respecto a la situación económica del país se desplomaron en 22,6 puntos y las referidas al futuro del empleo en 22,7 puntos.
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